Why the Ocean is the best Indicator for Montana Winter

We've finally reached that time of the year when the wild speculation begins over another long Montana winter.

Will it be bitterly cold? Will the winds howl? Will the snow be deeper than we've seen since the Winter of (fill in the blank with your own epic recollection)?

It's all ridiculous, because all of the above, or none of the above, could be true. It's Montana. And no one, and I mean no one, knows for certain. And certainly not if you depend on some "agricultural voodoo" in a little book that loosely claims some magical affiliation with "historical weather data" and how warm it was last year on the south side of the barn.

This year, in particular, there's only one clear indicator. And even though it's a little late to the party, it's really the only factor we can "depend" on.

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First, a word about that little book(s)

Starting this week, the latest editions of the Old Farmer's Almanac, and the Farmer's Almanac are released. The Old Farmer's is well, older, first coming out in 1792 when I guess we were still coping with the death of Ben Franklin and not having anyone to ask about the coming winter. The competing Farmer's Almanac came out in 1818 and is the young whippersnapper in this fight.

The Old Farmer's claims it can top 80% accuracy when predicting the "direction of precipitation", but admits it's about 44% when predicting the "direction of temperature".

Read that again. So they claim to know when it's going to be wet. But without really knowing about what will happen with the cold that doesn't do much good for Montana snow, does it? They blame it on "abnormal" weather patterns.

Or maybe it's the wooly worms revolting?

Really, how accurate are the Almanac forecasts

Well, an oft-cited University of Illinois study says the almanacs are closer to 52% accuracy. About the same as you walking out in Hellgate Canyon and seeing which side freezes.

At best, the "homespun" forecasts just throw everything at the wall. For example, in the Winter of '23, it blamed "above average snowfall" on "El Nino", which isn't how it works in the Northern Rockies. It was snowy, for weeks. But a map could tell you that.

Last winter, we were told to brace ourselves for EPIC snowfall, only to get the weird "snow drought" that lasted through most of the winter.

The summer outlooks don't fare much better. This year the Old Farmer's Almanac said the Western Montana summer would be "cool and rainy". Explain that against the longest string of triple-digit days in 17 years.

Will La Nina impact Montana's winter?

All my meteorologist buddies, both at the National Weather Service and throughout the broadcast business, freely admit it's tough to even lock down 5-days, let alone 5-months in advance. In Montana, my experience is you're doing great if you can hit the next 36-HOURS in the middle of the winter.

But computer modeling is getting better, and the NWS 6-10-day outlooks are pretty dependable to see upcoming trends. Even the 90-day outlooks are more reliable. Of course, NWS is smart enough to wait until late fall before calling it with its seasonal outlook.

Last spring, we heard about the persistent El Nino ending, although some younger reporters jumped on that and thought it would bring a wet Northwest and Northern Rockies summer, like throwing a switch.

Actually, as August winds down, La Nina still hasn't "wound up". The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said we're still stuck in "neutral" right now between the warmer El Nino and cooler La Nina patterns in the Pacific. Kind of like when your kid tries to drive your old stick-shift Ford.

The scientists said there was a "66% chance" La Nina could kick in during September-November, but we might stay "neutral" for several more months (see above pickup reference). The chance goes up to "74%" for November-January.

IF that happens, a La Nina winter generally means cooler, wetter weather, although not necessarily a ton of snow, at least in the valleys. That depends on those devious Canadians living the cooler open when they go for a Molson during hockey season.

Come to think of it, maybe I'll write the Almanac folks and suggest they add that to their "secret formula".